Your HR and recruiting team’s next crisis is Roe
So It Turns Out, #38
So,
Here are some things I’ve been thinking about this week; this is a heavy one, so if you want to skip down to the animal gifs, Ctrl+F or scroll to “Okay, bring me the palate-cleanser tweets”:
So it turns out your HR and recruiting team’s next crisis is Roe
(Content note: discussion of abortion and miscarriage, as well as a intentionally narrow and capitalist angle on a much bigger issue of fundamental rights)
So, as you probably know by now, the Republican appointees on the Supreme Court are expected to very substantial curtail or even eliminate abortion rights in America. That may still be wrong — after all, the expectation in Planned Parenthood v. Casey was that the Court would overturn Roe v. Wade. and instead they came up with an alternate framework — but it’s the clear betting odds.
Here’s the thing: very few people in the business world are talking about this because of how polarizing abortion is in American life, but assuming abortion rights are overturned by the Court, it’s going to be one of the biggest issues in American business in 2022. Now, I’m not claiming that abortion rights are more or less important than other rights1, but I do think it’s fair to say that healthcare access is uniquely tied to employers in the US relative to other countries, or relative to other rights inside the US.
So, let’s talk about what that means.
I’m surprised to realize that most folks don’t realize that upon the overturning of Roe, about half of the states in the US will automatically go back to being no-choice states where abortion is banned, due to pre-Roe laws or post-Roe so-called “trigger laws” that activate upon the overturning of Roe. This graphic from the Guttmacher Institute sums it up well:
This is NOT just a “red state” thing — it’s a “purple” state thing too, and will affect many “blue” communities in red states, like Austin, or Miami, or Madison, or Cleveland, or…you get the idea. So even if you think this isn’t on your plate…well, if you’re a business, it probably is.
And that doesn’t matter if you’re an “apolitical” workplace, or left, or right; this isn’t about your beliefs, it’s about your employees’ health benefits, which is part of their compensation that you owe them, by contract.
Here are some real questions you’ll soon be facing, if you’re any sort of large company:
“I’m a potential employee with skills in high demand. Why should I work for you at your headquarters in a no-choice state, when I can go take a job in a pro-choice state instead?”
“I’m pregnant, and my boss wants me to go for work travel to a no-choice state. I’ve had previous miscarriages; what if that happens again, I seek medical care, and I then get arrested under false accusations of getting an abortion? What if I just get told by a doctor that my miscarriage requires medical treatments that can also be used for abortion, and are thus banned? I don’t want to go on this work trip, I don’t care how important it is to you.”
“I picked this job for the health benefits; I need hormonal birth control to control severe symptoms that would otherwise prevent me from working some days. I’m not even using it for birth control; my partner can’t get me pregnant. I’ve just been told by my pharmacist that I can’t get that medicine any more because it can be used off-label to induce an abortion. I need a transfer immediately to our East Coast offices where I can still get that health care.”
“I am a trans employee that is one of your most critical Site Reliability Engineers. Every minute your website is down costs you millions of dollars, and we know from our metrics that I’ve prevented hours of downtime this month alone. The people who just passed our Texas state law overturning Roe also want to ban my marriage and prosecute me for my sex life. Will you speak up with your lobbyists against it? If not, I’m leaving. Good luck finding my replacement in this hiring market.”
None of this is hyperbolic, all of this will happen.
No one’s going to talk about this because of how polarizing it is in American life, until all of a sudden it’s a huge crisis. Kind of like the the pandemic’s impact on women disproportionate to men in the workforce, maybe. It turns out capitalism sucks sometimes at planning for things that don’t affect the average male CEO…
So: if you’re a straight dude with skills in high demand and a bit of chutzpah, write to your HR department and ask them how they’re planning to address these… I bet you they don’t have an answer. But maybe asking them will help them to start planning to have one…
(Note: it’s especially important here to remind you that I am writing this in personal capacity, and don’t know if my employer would agree with anything in this newsletter.)
Welcome back to exponential war
As you probably know by now, the Omicron COVID variant is on the horizon. Or to put it another way…
Honestly, no one yet knows what any of this means. It’s still too early, and while I’m hopeful that the One Weird Trick of just giving people a booster continues to work well, there’s no certainty yet.
I believe with high certainty that:
Omicron is still detectable by all rapid antigen and PCR tests.
Non-pharmaceutical interventions like masks still work, though likely a little less well given Omicron’s likely higher Rt.
Most pharmaceuticals authorized now, or in the pipeline, are likely to work well; a couple of the monoclonal antibody products appear to need reformulation against Omicron.
If we need to create Omicron-specific booster vaccines, they’ll be in on the shelves in about 100 days from now.
I personally suspect, but do not know that:
Omicron will spread faster than Delta, and way faster than “original” COVID. It will become the predominant strain in most or all communities connected to global commerce, and case counts will more rapidly increase than Delta.
Omicron will spread quickly in unvaccinated populations, and will evade much of the protection that natural immunity gives (i.e., low-vaccination communities that had gotten some natural protection from Delta infections are at high risk in the US from Omicron).
Omicron will spread somewhat in some vax-and-boosted populations, and there will be breakthrough cases, just like Delta, but boosted folks will avoid meaningful risk of severe cases (i.e., you, the average consumer of this newsletter, are at low risk personally, even if you have a sick day or two).
Whether you’re vaccinated or not, Omicron is on average less severe than Delta, but unclear by how much, or if that meaningfully helps elderly patients.
Some healthcare systems will bear the impact of 1 through 4 easily; others will be overwhelmed. Again.
In other words, welcome back to our exponential war.
The first problem with exponential war is that by the time you know you should do anything, most interventions are too late, and most interventions that are sufficiently scaled will seem absurdly over-the-top. The second problem is that “small percentages of big numbers are still big numbers.” (h/t to Scott Gottlieb)
So, it’s too late for us to stop Omicron from spreading in the US; it just isn’t possible any more if Omicron is indeed as transmissible as it seems. But it’s entirely possible (and, I think, likely) that the average person in the US is at less risk from Omicron than Delta, but that lower percentage of people at risk (primarily those unvaccinated) can still lead to more total count of folks in the ICU if a lot of people get sick all at once.
In particular, the “perfect storm” for Omicron is probably, well, my childhood home in the American Midwest, where vaccine rates are middle-of-the-range, mask usage is low, people are about to spend a lot of time indoors together due to weather, and there are lots of folks with pre-existing conditions.
Now frankly, you can’t do much to address this problem. You’ll know more in about a week and a half, one way or another, about all the hypotheses I spun. And there are plenty of worlds where Omicron isn’t a big concern at all for vax-and-boosted folks, even if it is a big concern for the planet. But I also know that a lot of folks who get this newsletter are feeling nervous about Omicron, and I want to suggest no-regrets places to put that nervous energy.
So to avoid feeling like a chump regardless of how Omicron turns out, I’d suggest that you accelerate and prioritize doing things that would be good ideas anyways, if you lived in a world without Omicron but still with Delta and supply chain issues, like:
Get boosted, get boosted, get boosted — IF YOU ONLY DO ONE THING, DO THIS — in the DC area, the walk-in sites are best to avoid dealing with appointment-hunting; appointments are getting harder to find, so start looking now if you prefer to schedule.
Ask the people you meet if they are boosted — a surprisingly large number of people aren’t aware they’re eligible but will seek out boosters if they learn they are, like my cabbie this week
Similarly, help your friends who are less tech-savvy find appointments — all of the dormant vaccine-hunter Facebook groups are suddenly alive with people needing advice on where to find booster or pediatric appointments.
Get a flu shot — it would really suck to freak yourself out thinking you had Omicron, when you actually just had the flu.
Upgrade your masks — if you want them actually to protect you (instead of just serving the social role of showing you’re complying with a mask mandate), get a KN95 or N95; I recommend Bona Fide Masks for KN95s. They’ll probably be more comfortable, too, than that cloth mask you’ve been sweating through for months.
Buy COVID self-tests; they still work for Delta and Omicron — You may have read hyperbolic reports that COVID self-tests are hard to find; that may be true in-person, but they’re very available online, usually for $14 for a set of two tests. Walmart usually has them in stock and ships quickly; if you’re in the DC area and need a test, email or text me directly and I will bring you some. They’re a great way to avoid worrying all Christmas vacation that your cold is actually COVID and will put your grandma at risk.
If you work for a company that’s encouraging in-person work, ask them to add a weekly test to the expense policy so you don’t even have to worry about FSAs or insurance reimbursements or whatever (my employer does, as of this week, if you need a precedent).
Stock up a little on nonperishable crucial items — I think the odds of meaningful supply chain disruption from COVID are relatively low, but supply chains could get wonky for non-COVID reasons at the ports, or folks might just start panic-buying again. If you’ve got a little spare cash, buy stuff you won’t need until next month, and you’ll feel a little less stressed. You’re going to buy more toilet paper anyways next month, why not just do it now and worry less?
Niche advice: avoid non-COVID risks in high-COVID areas — if, for example, you had plans to, I don’t know, go race motorcyles without a helmet on in Michigan this week, maybe hold off for a month or two, until there are more free ICU beds.
(Okay, bring me the palate-cleanser tweets)
May this raccoon inspire your work
May this capybara bless your pool time
May this squirrel get the bird seed
May this otter waltz in a winter wonderland
Disclosures:
Views are my own and do not represent those of current or former clients, employers, friends, or my cat.
It should tell you something about our current “I would like to complain because your tweet failed to perfectly encapsulate the variety of all human experience” society that I feel the need to write that disclaimer.